As Liberation Day approaches, America’s new economic doctrine kicks off with a bang. While most economists are in a panic some, like Owen Cass, are supportive. Reports are saying that Howard
Lutnick might just be the fall guy if it all goes wrong.
Mark your calendars and cancel your overseas Zoom calls — today, April
2, is Liberation Day, the newest entry in America’s long history of declaring
freedom from things. This time, it’s global trade rules. President Trump,
riding high on campaign energy and Wall Street noise, is positioning today as
the start of a new American economic doctrine, built on the good ol’ fashioned
foundations of tariffs, economic nationalism, and performative patriotism.
What’s everyone wearing for ‘Liberation Day’? pic.twitter.com/nDryp2fsHB
— Hoodlum 🇺🇸 (@NotHoodlum) April 1, 2025
So, what is Liberation Day? It’s not just another MAGA-themed merch
opportunity (although that’s coming). It’s the start of a sweeping tariff
regime designed to “re-liberate” American industry from the cruel tyranny of
imported goods — a plan critics say could set the global trade order on fire
faster than you can say “Smoot-Hawley.”
As per
our previous reporting, this is no one-off policy stunt. The tariffs are a
calculated move aimed at resetting trade ties with China, Mexico, and even the
EU, with tech and semiconductors in the crosshairs. This is protectionism
rebranded, wrapped in fireworks, and served with a side of “America First”
swagger.
What Time Is the Liberation Day Announcement?
For those of you wondering “what time is Liberation Day?”, set your
alarms for 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time. That’s when Trump is expected to hit “send”
on a statement that may very well shift stock markets, realign trade flows, and
ruin a few economists’ vacations.
“Liberation Day”
I must ask, from what, exactly, is the States being “liberated”?
Because from here, it looks like they’re being freed from economic stability, global confidence, and basic market logic – one idiotic tariff at a time. pic.twitter.com/cUjYdH2YuL
— Bearly Politics (@i_iratus) March 31, 2025
The event, being held at the White House’s Rose Garden, is expected to
be equal parts policy rollout and campaign rally. Expect red-white-and-blue
stagecraft, angry digs at Biden, and maybe even a confetti cannon if Trump’s
advisors don’t talk him out of it. But, we still don’t know what he’s going to
say.
And if you’re a trader? Strap in. Futures markets are already jumpy,
with tech stocks especially vulnerable to a tariff onslaught targeting key
components sourced from Asia.
(Some) Economists Say It’s a Good Thing, Actually
Even Oren Cass is nervous (Wikipedia, Xuthoria – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0).
Enter Oren Cass, the intellectual spine of the “common good capitalism”
movement and one of the few policy wonks still willing to endorse Trumpism with
a straight face. Even Cass is wondering what’s to come, and he appears more
than a little nervous. In his latest in Understanding America, Cass says, “I am broadly supportive of
President Trump’s desire to reshape the global trading system, and especially
enthusiastic about the quality of the team he has assembled (VP Vance, Rubio at
State, Bessent at Treasury, Miran at CEA, Greer at USTR) and the sharp
critiques and frameworks they have developed. But the rubber meets the road in
the clarity of the administration’s communication about its plans and goals,
and in the coherence of the policy agenda actually implemented, and there the
first two months have left much to be desired.”
Womp, womp. pic.twitter.com/yVk6u3OjNL
— Oren Cass (@oren_cass) April 2, 2025
Cass supports the administration’s “three demands” approach to trade:
require reciprocity, strengthen domestic supply chains, and punish bad actors
(read: China). Cass’s take is that the tariffs will “rebalance” rather than
destabilize. Critics, however, aren’t buying it — pointing out that similar
policies in the Trump 1.0 era mostly just made microwaves more expensive.
But hey, why let past failures ruin a great branding opportunity?
A Chorus of Doubt
If Cass is wary, other
economists and bankers seem downright scared. Goldman Sachs raised the
likelihood of a U.S. recession within the next year from 20% to 35%, attributing
this heightened risk to the anticipated tariffs.
Good morning, April 1
(one day until “Liberation Day”
…and the market is already out of the chute: pic.twitter.com/C19X5SdLBJ— Annie van Leur (@AnnevanLeur) April 1, 2025
Kara Reynolds, an economist at American University, emphasized that if
both businesses and consumers become concerned and reduce their spending, it could
tip the U.S. economy into a recession. Anne Villamil, a professor of economics
at the University of Iowa, broadly agreed with Reynolds, saying that a decline
in business investment, potentially triggered by increased costs due to
tariffs, could lead to a recession.
And to top it off, Jeffrey Frankel, a professor at Harvard University,
pointed out that the existing chaos and uncertainty surrounding tariff policy
are already affecting consumer confidence, which has declined to its lowest
level since 2021.
Howard Lutnick: Hero or Human Shield?
If things go sideways — say, markets crash or Walmart shelves start
looking like Soviet supermarkets — the administration may already have a
designated scapegoat: Howard Lutnick.
Howard Lutnick, he looks like a fall guy (Public Domain).
Yes, that Howard Lutnick — the former Cantor Fitzgerald CEO, mega-donor,
and friend of Trump. According to Politico, Lutnick has been positioning himself as the
public-facing Wall Street liaison to the new trade order. He’s been making the
rounds, talking up the need for “bold moves” and “economic self-determination.”
Behind the scenes, insiders say he’s also the most likely fall guy if
Liberation Day turns into a flaming economic pile-up. One source was reported
as saying, “I think people would take special pleasure in blaming him [Lutnick],”
and that Lutnick is often in the Oval Office, “giving him [Trump] bad advice — pushing
more aggressive tariffs”.
In fairness, Lutnick probably knows the risks. But when you play ball
with Trump, you either walk away a kingmaker or a cautionary tale. The odds are
about 50/50 — slightly worse if tariffs hit your portfolio.
The Big Picture: Economic Doctrine or Theatrical Detour?
Liberation Day may sound like a dystopian Netflix original, but its
implications for global trade are very real. If Trump’s tariffs escalate into a
full-scale trade war (again), expect retaliatory moves, export restrictions,
and massive volatility across sectors — especially tech, agriculture, and
automotive.
Meanwhile, economists are split. Some see this as a necessary shock to
a bloated, dependency-ridden trade system. Others call it “economic cosplay”
that risks alienating allies and tanking supply chains just when they were
starting to stabilize.
But for now, all eyes are on 2:00 p.m. ET. Liberation is coming —
whether the world wants it or not.
As Liberation Day approaches, America’s new economic doctrine kicks off with a bang. While most economists are in a panic some, like Owen Cass, are supportive. Reports are saying that Howard
Lutnick might just be the fall guy if it all goes wrong.
Mark your calendars and cancel your overseas Zoom calls — today, April
2, is Liberation Day, the newest entry in America’s long history of declaring
freedom from things. This time, it’s global trade rules. President Trump,
riding high on campaign energy and Wall Street noise, is positioning today as
the start of a new American economic doctrine, built on the good ol’ fashioned
foundations of tariffs, economic nationalism, and performative patriotism.
What’s everyone wearing for ‘Liberation Day’? pic.twitter.com/nDryp2fsHB
— Hoodlum 🇺🇸 (@NotHoodlum) April 1, 2025
So, what is Liberation Day? It’s not just another MAGA-themed merch
opportunity (although that’s coming). It’s the start of a sweeping tariff
regime designed to “re-liberate” American industry from the cruel tyranny of
imported goods — a plan critics say could set the global trade order on fire
faster than you can say “Smoot-Hawley.”
As per
our previous reporting, this is no one-off policy stunt. The tariffs are a
calculated move aimed at resetting trade ties with China, Mexico, and even the
EU, with tech and semiconductors in the crosshairs. This is protectionism
rebranded, wrapped in fireworks, and served with a side of “America First”
swagger.
What Time Is the Liberation Day Announcement?
For those of you wondering “what time is Liberation Day?”, set your
alarms for 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time. That’s when Trump is expected to hit “send”
on a statement that may very well shift stock markets, realign trade flows, and
ruin a few economists’ vacations.
“Liberation Day”
I must ask, from what, exactly, is the States being “liberated”?
Because from here, it looks like they’re being freed from economic stability, global confidence, and basic market logic – one idiotic tariff at a time. pic.twitter.com/cUjYdH2YuL
— Bearly Politics (@i_iratus) March 31, 2025
The event, being held at the White House’s Rose Garden, is expected to
be equal parts policy rollout and campaign rally. Expect red-white-and-blue
stagecraft, angry digs at Biden, and maybe even a confetti cannon if Trump’s
advisors don’t talk him out of it. But, we still don’t know what he’s going to
say.
And if you’re a trader? Strap in. Futures markets are already jumpy,
with tech stocks especially vulnerable to a tariff onslaught targeting key
components sourced from Asia.
(Some) Economists Say It’s a Good Thing, Actually
Even Oren Cass is nervous (Wikipedia, Xuthoria – Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0).
Enter Oren Cass, the intellectual spine of the “common good capitalism”
movement and one of the few policy wonks still willing to endorse Trumpism with
a straight face. Even Cass is wondering what’s to come, and he appears more
than a little nervous. In his latest in Understanding America, Cass says, “I am broadly supportive of
President Trump’s desire to reshape the global trading system, and especially
enthusiastic about the quality of the team he has assembled (VP Vance, Rubio at
State, Bessent at Treasury, Miran at CEA, Greer at USTR) and the sharp
critiques and frameworks they have developed. But the rubber meets the road in
the clarity of the administration’s communication about its plans and goals,
and in the coherence of the policy agenda actually implemented, and there the
first two months have left much to be desired.”
Womp, womp. pic.twitter.com/yVk6u3OjNL
— Oren Cass (@oren_cass) April 2, 2025
Cass supports the administration’s “three demands” approach to trade:
require reciprocity, strengthen domestic supply chains, and punish bad actors
(read: China). Cass’s take is that the tariffs will “rebalance” rather than
destabilize. Critics, however, aren’t buying it — pointing out that similar
policies in the Trump 1.0 era mostly just made microwaves more expensive.
But hey, why let past failures ruin a great branding opportunity?
A Chorus of Doubt
If Cass is wary, other
economists and bankers seem downright scared. Goldman Sachs raised the
likelihood of a U.S. recession within the next year from 20% to 35%, attributing
this heightened risk to the anticipated tariffs.
Good morning, April 1
(one day until “Liberation Day”
…and the market is already out of the chute: pic.twitter.com/C19X5SdLBJ— Annie van Leur (@AnnevanLeur) April 1, 2025
Kara Reynolds, an economist at American University, emphasized that if
both businesses and consumers become concerned and reduce their spending, it could
tip the U.S. economy into a recession. Anne Villamil, a professor of economics
at the University of Iowa, broadly agreed with Reynolds, saying that a decline
in business investment, potentially triggered by increased costs due to
tariffs, could lead to a recession.
And to top it off, Jeffrey Frankel, a professor at Harvard University,
pointed out that the existing chaos and uncertainty surrounding tariff policy
are already affecting consumer confidence, which has declined to its lowest
level since 2021.
Howard Lutnick: Hero or Human Shield?
If things go sideways — say, markets crash or Walmart shelves start
looking like Soviet supermarkets — the administration may already have a
designated scapegoat: Howard Lutnick.
Howard Lutnick, he looks like a fall guy (Public Domain).
Yes, that Howard Lutnick — the former Cantor Fitzgerald CEO, mega-donor,
and friend of Trump. According to Politico, Lutnick has been positioning himself as the
public-facing Wall Street liaison to the new trade order. He’s been making the
rounds, talking up the need for “bold moves” and “economic self-determination.”
Behind the scenes, insiders say he’s also the most likely fall guy if
Liberation Day turns into a flaming economic pile-up. One source was reported
as saying, “I think people would take special pleasure in blaming him [Lutnick],”
and that Lutnick is often in the Oval Office, “giving him [Trump] bad advice — pushing
more aggressive tariffs”.
In fairness, Lutnick probably knows the risks. But when you play ball
with Trump, you either walk away a kingmaker or a cautionary tale. The odds are
about 50/50 — slightly worse if tariffs hit your portfolio.
The Big Picture: Economic Doctrine or Theatrical Detour?
Liberation Day may sound like a dystopian Netflix original, but its
implications for global trade are very real. If Trump’s tariffs escalate into a
full-scale trade war (again), expect retaliatory moves, export restrictions,
and massive volatility across sectors — especially tech, agriculture, and
automotive.
Meanwhile, economists are split. Some see this as a necessary shock to
a bloated, dependency-ridden trade system. Others call it “economic cosplay”
that risks alienating allies and tanking supply chains just when they were
starting to stabilize.
But for now, all eyes are on 2:00 p.m. ET. Liberation is coming —
whether the world wants it or not.
